[Updated copy]
Excellency Roberto Kobeh González,
President of the Council of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
Excellencies,
Distinguished Delegates,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
1 A very good morning to all of you. I am happy to join you today at this 4th World Civil Aviation Chief Executives Forum. Allow me to extend a very warm welcome to all delegates. I would especially like to thank President Kobeh for gracing this Forum and delivering a Keynote Address.
2 This Forum has grown over the years. Today, more than 100 civil aviation chief executives and senior officials from over 50 countries have gathered here in Singapore. You represent governments, civil aviation authorities, airports, airlines, air navigation service providers, international organisations, captains of industry, and academia. The Forum will benefit richly from the breadth and depth of the perspectives present.
Aviation Outlook
3 Since the last Forum in 2009, the aviation industry has weathered many challenges ranging from the 2010 Icelandic volcano eruption, severe winter storms, geopolitical upheavals and the recent economic uncertainties in Europe and the US. Airlines have managed to pull through the tough times and have eked out some profitability in 2012. Looking forward, IATA has forecast that they should continue to do modestly well this year.
4 With signs of gradual improvements in the global economy, the near term outlook for the sector is positive. ICAO foresees that global air traffic will grow by 6% annually over the next two years. Similarly, IATA estimates that air passenger numbers will also rise by some 30% to 3.6 billion in the year 2016, with about 800 million more passengers as compared to 2011.
5 The emerging economies of the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, Africa and Latin America are contributing to the growth of aviation throughout the world. The Asia-Pacific is projected to become the largest air transport market by 2016, making up a third of global passengers – ahead of both North America and Europe. Singapore, as one of the aviation hubs in the Asia-Pacific region, is poised to benefit and to continue growing. Singapore’s Changi Airport has enjoyed annual growth of more than 5% over the past decade, and last year, we celebrated annual passenger movements passing the 50 million mark for the first time.
6 While the near-term global economic outlook looks reasonably promising, there remain challenges and uncertainties that may derail the sector. Such times present both opportunities and pitfalls. Aviation leaders such as us here today are challenged to guide international civil aviation’s onward progress.
Key Challenges for the Way Ahead
7 The theme for this Forum – Embracing Change, Strengthening Partnership – is therefore apt. The future of aviation will be determined by how well aviation stakeholders can work together and rise to the challenge, embracing change, and shaping it. Let me highlight three key areas – upholding safety, ensuring adequate system capacity, and growing our people.
Upholding Air Safety
8 According to the Aviation Safety Network, 2012 was the safest year for air travel since the dawn of the jet age in the 1950s. An industry figure noted that at current levels of safety, a person taking a flight daily could expect to fly safely for 14,000 years before encountering an air crash.[1] Air safety has indeed improved steadily over the years due to the combined efforts of industry and regulators alike, yielding substantial improvements in key areas such as runway safety, fatigue risk management, and enhanced air traffic control.
9 Much credit must go to the ICAO’s leadership for promoting policies and initiatives that advance aviation safety. ICAO has spearheaded progress in key areas such as runway safety, fatigue risk management, and a systems- and data-driven approach to safety, working in close partnership with States and industry groupings. ICAO’s leadership in pushing through global air safety advances is a fine example of the sort of whole-of-aviation partnership towards positive change that our sector needs.
10 I am pleased that Singapore has been able to play a role in supporting numerous ICAO safety initiatives at both the global as well as the regional level – for example assisting with the implementation of the new Continuous Monitoring Approach for the ICAO Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme. For Singapore itself, the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) has embarked on the modernisation of our safety regulatory framework, adopting a performance-based approach that holds the industry to high standards, whilst giving them the operational flexibility on the ground.
11 While the improvements in aviation safety are cause for celebration, we must not take them for granted. An accident is one too many and it behoves us as aviation leaders and regulators to keep finding ways to continually improve our safety performance. This is especially so given the growing and increasingly complex air transport system, more and more crowded airspace, and ever more sophisticated aircraft with new equipment and technologies. Problems encountered with components of revolutionary aircraft such as the Airbus A380 and more recently with the Boeing 787 Dreamliner are cases in point.
Gearing for Growth
12 Second, for the aviation industry to continue growing, we must continue to invest in timely, quality infrastructure. Airports and their vicinities are transforming into sprawling multi-modal and multi-functional transport hubs. In developed regions, legacy infrastructure must be refreshed and upgraded. Emerging markets face an even bigger challenge of ramping up infrastructure to keep pace with rapidly expanding air traffic.
13 Singapore is leveraging on our strong partnerships to ensure sufficient capacity for our projected growth. CAAS and the Changi Airport Group are working closely with airlines, ground handlers and other stakeholders to enhance Changi Airport’s air traffic capacity. This includes enhancing air traffic management procedures, increasing runway availability, and adopting new technologies and systems. With these enhancements, Changi Airport’s existing twin runways will be able to handle about 430,000 aircraft movements annually. This will boost our current aircraft handling capacity by some 40 per cent, sufficient to accommodate growth till at least 2018. Meanwhile, planning is already underway for the longer term expansion of Changi Airport.
14 In tandem with plans to grow our airport and aerodrome infrastructure, we have also started to develop Singapore into a Centre of Excellence (COE) for Air Traffic Management (ATM). The COE will serve as a nexus for the development of ATM capabilities and solutions, through research and development by local and international ATM and aviation entities, industry players, and academia. We look forward to the COE addressing the need of Singapore and the wider region for capacity, efficiency and service enhancements in ATM to fully realise our region’s aviation growth potential.
15 In this regard, I am pleased to note that today, CAAS will be concluding a Memorandum of Agreement with the Nanyang Technological University of Singapore to establish an Air Traffic Management Research Institute, following other collaboration agreements concluded with the Federal Aviation Administration, SESAR Joint-Undertaking, the MITRE Corporation and Airbus Prosky.
Developing Human Resource
16 Thirdly, other than addressing key issues such as safety and capacity growth, we will also have to look at human resource development (or HRD). Over the next 20 years, ICAO estimates that airlines will be adding 25,000 new aircraft to the current 17,000-strong global fleet. By 2026, the aviation industry is projected to need 480,000 new technicians to maintain these aircraft and over 350,000 pilots to fly them.[2] Sufficient qualified and competent aviation professionals will be crucial for the growth and sustainability of civil aviation, particularly for the emerging markets.
17 To tackle the HRD challenge, it is important for aviation stakeholders to establish strategic partnerships and cooperation amongst ICAO, States, industry, and other international and regional organisations to jointly develop leading-edge human resource practices.
18 Singapore firmly believes in doing our part in human resource development for the global aviation community. Since 1958, the Singapore Aviation Academy (SAA) has trained more than 70,000 participants from over 200 countries and territories. As an ICAO TRAINAIR-Plus full member, SAA develops standardised training packages to share with existing and new aviation training centres. SAA is also in the process of being certified as an ICAO Aviation Security Training Centre (ASTC). This will enable SAA to deliver a catalogue of aviation security courses for a broad spectrum of aviation security professionals.
19 Since 2001, Singapore has also been partnering ICAO to provide training fellowships under the ICAO-Singapore Developing Country Training Programme. I am happy to announce that Singapore will extend the programme for another three years from April 2013 to March 2016, and will increase the number of fellowships from 180 to 250. In addition, a new Aviation Leaders Scholarship will be introduced with up to six scholarships awarded over the three-year period for the Diploma in Civil Aviation Management at the Singapore Aviation Academy. Today, we will formalise these new programmes under a new Memorandum of Understanding between Singapore and ICAO.
Conclusion
20 Despite the varied challenges faced by civil aviation – upholding safety, growing capacity, and developing our human resource prominent among them – I am confident that the aviation community has what it takes to move forward. Let us work closely and proactively together to shape change and realise the future we want for aviation. It is my hope that this Forum will be one means of catalysing the global dialogue and partnerships for change that we need for the journey.
21 I wish all of you an interesting and fruitful Forum, and for our overseas guests, an enjoyable stay in Singapore.
22 Thank you.
[1] IATA media briefing in Dec 2012.
[2] Aircraft and personnel statistics are sourced from ICAO’s Next Generation of Aviation Professionals initiative.
