1.           Good morning distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen. To the participants of the 10^th Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers or APPSMO, I extend a warm welcome.

2.           It gives me great pleasure to see such strong participation from armed forces around the world. This year’s attendance will be one of the largest since APPSMO’s inception, with a total of 61 officers participating in the programme. This is a solid endorsement of the value of this initiative by RSIS.

Global Challenges

3.           Since its inauguration in 1999, APPSMO has provided a useful forum for military officers to interact and exchange views on a broad range of subjects pertaining to regional and international security.  Such exchanges are valuable given today’s complex security environment. Since I spoke at last year’s APPSMO, we have experienced an eventful year of turbulence and global challenges.  Allow me to share some perspectives on the current strategic landscape. 

4.           The Middle East remains a hotbed of tension and instability affecting the whole world. International talks on Iran’s nuclear ambitions ended in deadlock on 19 July, despite the Bush Administration’s decision to send a senior American official[1] to the table for the first time. Similarly, the Israeli-Palestinian peace process remains at an impasse. While both sides have stated their intent to work towards a peace deal by the end of 2008, prospects of a meaningful agreement are not high. The recent decision by Prime Minister Olmert to step down in September makes a resolution this year even less likely.  Over in Iraq, the security situation appears to have improved due to the US troop surge.  However, a more enduring resolution of the internal strife between contending factions remains some distance away. 

5.           In Afghanistan, the security situation has become more volatile, with Taliban militants increasing their attacks against government and coalition forces.  May 2008 was the first month in which there were more deaths amongst the coalition forces in Afghanistan than in Iraq since the conflicts started[2]. This reflects both the improved security situation in Iraq, as well as the increased instability on the ground in Afghanistan.  There are also concerns that militants have greater freedom to retreat to the Pashtun-belt along the Afghan-Pakistan border to regroup and recuperate. Pakistan’s peace deals with pro-Taliban militant groups may have provided renewed opportunities for militants to use the border area for attacks into Afghanistan. NATO and other countries working to stabilise Afghanistan will have to carefully define their objectives and strategy for stabilisation, reconstruction and nation building in Afghanistan. This should be based on a realistic appraisal of what is possible given the history, ethnicity and economic potential of the country.  

6.           Closer to home, there have been significant developments in Asia. The overall regional strategic landscape remains stable with notable positive developments in the Korean peninsula and across the Taiwan Strait. 

7.           Regardless of the outcome of the upcoming US elections, the US is committed to its engagement with the region. US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates, in his address at the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore in May this year said “any future US administration’s Asia security policy is going to be grounded in the fact that the United States remains a nation with strong and enduring interests in this region – interests that will endure no matter which political party occupies the White House next.” This will help to provide the foundation for the evolution of stable and constructive relations between the key rising powers in the region. At the same time, China’s relations with Japan were given a boost when a Chinese warship visited Tokyo in November 2007[3]. Reciprocating this visit, a Japanese warship called at China’s Zhanjiang port in June this year, the first by a Japanese naval vessel since the Second World War.  The PLA and the Japanese Self-Defence Forces also held their very first joint communications and formation maneuvering exercise during the port call. In the same month, both sides also reached a consensus to jointly develop a gas field in the East China Sea, resolving what has been a thorn in bilateral ties for many years.  China is also expanding its economic links and security coordination with Russia. These developments bode well for improved bilateral relations, and more importantly, for improved peace and stability in East Asia.  Japan-Korea relations, though, remain fraught with difficulties.

8.           Tensions in two potential flashpoints have however been easing. North Korea’s submission of its nuclear programme declaration has led to the resumption of the Six-Party Talks after a nine-month hiatus. Pyongyang’s demolition of its Yongbyon cooling tower on 27 June 2008 was an important symbolic gesture.  And the first meeting of the foreign ministers of the “Six Party Talks” was held in Singapore two weeks ago on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). This was not only the highest-level meeting on dismantling Pyongyang’s nuclear facilities, but also the first time all six parties had gathered outside China since the start of the talks in 2003. During the meeting, North Korea also took a step away from isolation by signing the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation or TAC with ASEAN. This is a positive indication of its desire for closer ties not only with Southeast Asia, but also with the broader international community.

9.           Cross-straits relations between China and Taiwan are also improving under the new Kuomingtang (KMT) administration. The successful conclusion of the first talks since 1999 between Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) demonstrated both sides’ commitment to turn a new page in cross-straits relations. The talks led to a breakthrough on direct chartered flights and Mainland tourism to Taiwan, which had been halted for nearly six decades. The prospects for continuing progress in cross-straits relations on the economic front are positive. Taiwanese officials are preparing for the second round of negotiations, which is likely to include cross-straits cargo flights, shortening flight routes for cross-straits flights and establishment of cross-straits shipping links. As both sides strengthen their economic ties, we hope that this will lead to mutual understanding and trust between China and Taiwan. Generous doses of mutual trust and understanding will be required as the two sides have to address sensitive political issues that will inevitably arise over the next few months.  These include whether the issue of Taiwan’s quest for UN membership will arise at the UN this year, participation by Taiwan in the activities of functional international organisations such as the WHO, and the issue of countries with diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

360 degree Challenges

10.       While the prevailing security landscape in Asia has provided the opportunity to foster closer regional networks of cooperation, security risks and challenges remain. Many of them are what Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes as “black swans” – large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events beyond the realm of normal expectations. We have seen the massive earthquake in Sichuan province and its disastrous after-effects. It was China’s worst earthquake disaster in decades.  Similarly, Cyclone Nargis, which struck Southern Myanmar 10 days before the Sichuan earthquake, brought destruction and death. More than 130,000 were reported missing and dead.

11.       Many of the new security challenges will be more complex and multifaceted. In our increasingly interconnected world, threats can come from “360-degrees” – from unexpected sources and directions.  The more interconnected we are, the more events in one country or one part of the world can have an effect on others.  A country’s computer and telecommunications networks can be attacked and crippled from overseas.  An undersea earthquake can disrupt international telecommunications traffic and financial transactions between Asia and America.  Increased international travel can exacerbate health threats such as the outbreak of viral pandemics. Failed states in one region can become safe havens and launch pads for terrorist groups to mount attacks against states in other regions. The scenarios I mentioned are not hypothetical – we have seen at least one example of each of them within the last 5 years. And the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction or WMD can see them landing in the hands of terrorists who cannot be deterred from using them.  In addition to these pressing security issues, illegal migration, maritime security, energy security, water and food security, and environmental hazards can pose significant challenges to the stability and development of nation-states. 

12.       The potential for instability will be magnified should the sub-prime crisis lead to a global economic slowdown. Indeed, a prolonged economic downturn could fuel nationalism, undermine regional cooperation, and bring about confrontation over long-standing territorial and other disputes.  In many cases these challenges cannot be addressed by a country acting on its own. They require international cooperation and action.

Role of the Military

13.       The role of militaries in responding to non-traditional security challenges is proving increasingly critical. While most militaries are not specifically equipped or trained to deal with non-traditional threats, militaries are often the only organisations able to respond to them rapidly and on the scale that is required.  And they may find themselves working with other militaries in multilateral settings.

14.       Militaries have common professional experiences, with a practical and action-oriented outlook. Militaries also have the necessary expertise, resources and assets to make a material difference on the ground, and facilitate tangible cooperation between governments, civilian agencies and international organisations. In the Boxing Day tsunami of 2004, granting foreign military relief teams early access to Aceh played a crucial role in rescue and aid distribution efforts. The TNI, in cooperation with foreign military forces, was able to help bring relief to the survivors, and lay the foundation for the subsequent recovery and rebuilding phases. During the relief efforts following the earthquake in Sichuan province, China too, was willing to accept donations and relief teams from selected countries.

15.       On the other hand, Myanmar did not give countries permission to deploy military equipment and personnel for relief operations in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis. This meant that resources that could have been made available were not utilised. However, we have to recognise that the primary responsibility for relief work lies with the affected country’s government, and though that government has a responsibility to its own people to seek international assistance should this be required, any such assistance would have to be with the agreement of the affected country.  ASEAN played a crucial role through the Tripartite Core Group (TCG)[4] to build mutual trust between the Myanmar Government and the donor countries, facilitating access and their contributions for relief work.

16.       We should continue to look for ways to enhance the cooperation between our militaries. There are already a number of bilateral and multilateral activities, such as Exercise Cobra Gold, which offer useful opportunities for our militaries to interact and engage in joint training. The Five Power Defence Arrangements or FPDA, comprising Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, has begun building capacity for disaster relief in recent years. The Western Pacific Naval Symposium or WPNS, which brings together 22 Asia-Pacific navies, has contributed significantly to building capacity and developing inter-operability for maritime security cooperation.  The ARF took steps towards practical cooperation with the Maritime Security Shore Exercise hosted by Singapore in 2007.  Most recently, at the 15th ARF two weeks ago, the US and the Philippines signaled their intention to conduct the ARF Disaster Relief Exercise, termed Voluntary Demonstration of Response, in 2009.  Our militaries can, and should, do more in the way of practical cooperation and collaboration to enhance regional peace and security.

17.       Military officers themselves need to acquire new skills to face the new challenges. First, they need to develop the knowledge and capabilities beyond their primary military duties and be prepared to provide a response to these possible new threats.  Second, military officers need to learn how to operate in a multilateral environment. Whether it is to counter conventional threats, peace-keeping or disaster relief, they are more than likely to find themselves working with militaries and agencies from other countries. Third, military officers need to develop a broader strategic outlook on security issues.  Knowing how to take action may not be sufficient. It will also be necessary to understand the political, historical and social context within which that action is taken. With such an understanding, military officers are more likely to devise appropriate ways of working with each other to achieve their mission.

18.       Ultimately, the effectiveness of the regional security architecture and the cooperative efforts between countries will depend on the level of trust and understanding among the parties, often forged on the ground by military officers. 

Conclusion

19.       In this regard, APPSMO has a part to play in strengthening the regional security architecture. It provides a good opportunity for military officers to build trust and understanding, and to foster close and strong bonds of friendship and cooperation. As future leaders, you are in a unique position to lead change and to prepare your own militaries to tackle these challenges.  Over the next few days, you will have many opportunities to exchange views and perspectives with your counterparts. The insights that you gain will be valuable. I hope that you will also use this opportunity to establish networks as well as to forge and renew professional and personal bonds. These will come in useful as our armed forces find themselves in greater need to cooperate closely with one another in order to deal with the security challenges ahead. 

20.       I wish you all a fruitful and enriching week.  Thank you.