Singapore Government Press Release

Media Relations Division, Ministry of Information, Communications and the Arts,

MICA Building, 140 Hill Street, 2nd Storey, Singapore 179369

Tel: 6837-9666

SUMMARY OF SPEECH BY PRIME MINISTER LEE HSIEN LOONG

AT THE CENTRAL PARTY SCHOOL IN BEIJING ON 25 OCTOBER 2005

Impact of China’s Emergence

1. China’s rise is the single biggest event of our age. Managing this tectonic shift will be a major challenge for the world. China’s participation in the global economy is intensifying competition, and forcing the pace of change and restructuring everywhere. China itself is facing internal challenges – it has to speed up development in the interior, make its industries more competitive, and adapt itself to international norms. In the longer term, China’s growth will change the relative strengths of different countries and alter the global strategic balance. This will not be an easy adjustment, either for China or the rest of the world.

2. Nevertheless, Singapore believes that China’s rise is a major plus for Asia, and for the world. Doubling and redoubling the living standards of a billion people will make for a more prosperous and stable region. It will, in time, shift the centre of gravity of the world economy towards Asia, create a favourable environment for the other Asian countries to grow, and enable the continent to play a significant and constructive role in world affairs.

3. Given China’s weight and rapid transformation, the adjustment in the international order which will be necessary is huge. It calls for wise and sensitive handling on the part of all the major players. For its part, China has repeatedly affirmed its pursuit of peaceful emergence. This will entail three strategic tasks.

Managing Relations With Other Powers

4. First, managing relations with the major powers, and especially with the world’s most powerful nation, the US. Sound and balanced relations between China and the US are the foundation for stability of the Asia-Pacific region and the world. Both sides have strong reasons to cooperate and manage the relationship for mutual advantage.

5. However, China’s growing national power, whether political, economic or military, looms large in the US. American workers are deeply concerned with the competitive challenge from China, and the mood in Congress towards China is generally not positive. One example was the opposition to CNOOC’s bid for Unocal.

6. Nevertheless, we should not over-state the problems in the relationship. The US and China continue to cooperate over the Six-Party Talks and exchange high level visits. The current US administration, like all its predecessors, understands that the US has little to gain in making China an enemy.

7. The challenge in US-China relations is for both sides to perceive their strategic interests in a constructive and cooperative relationship, while managing the frictions and political pressures that will inevitably arise from time to time. In this respect, the launch of a strategic dialogue between the two governments is a positive development. Both sides should continue to find constructive ways to engage, exchange views, raise and address concerns openly, and thus avoid misunderstanding and miscalculation.

8. Japan is another key player in Asia. Japan, together with the US and China, form the strategic triangle that anchors the stability of the region. Japan is still the biggest and most advanced economy in Asia. Increasingly, a new generation of Japanese want Japan to be a “normal” country and to play a bigger role in the world. But Japan has not yet come to terms with the history of the Second World War, unlike Germany in Europe.

9. This history issue is a major thorn in China-Japan relationship. The problems cannot be solved overnight, but neither country wants a collision. Furthermore, the situation today is fundamentally different from the 1930s and 1940s. China is now united and strong, and a nuclear power. Japan now has the US-Japan Security Alliance for added security. Both sides must find a way to close this chapter of history and move on. We cannot forget history, but neither should we be imprisoned by it.

10. India is the other huge emerging economy besides China. India started to reform and open up only in the 1990s, more than a decade after China. The initial pace of reforms was slow, but over the last dozen years significant progress has been made.

11. China-India relations are warming up. The two countries are taking steps to resolve their border dispute and strengthen economic ties. India also does not see its rise as a way to counter-balance China. If both countries maintain this approach, they will completely transform the Asian landscape.

12. Although Southeast Asia is not a single power, the countries of ASEAN taken together form an important part of Asia. China has been actively engaging ASEAN. China’s offer to negotiate a FTA with ASEAN was a strategic move to consolidate good long-term relations with the region. Besides the FTA, China has participated actively in regional fora.

13. ASEAN countries all welcome closer ties with China. However, they also want to enhance relations with other important partners. Thus ASEAN is negotiating an FTA with India, and also seeks to deepen its long established ties with the US, Japan, and the EU. ASEAN does not want to be exclusively dependent on China, and does not want to be forced to choose sides between China and the US, or China and Japan. This is why ASEAN favours an open framework for Asian regional cooperation.

Evolving an Open Regional Framework

14. Strategically, an open Asian region, in which the US, EU and other countries have a stake, will also help relations between China and the other powers. If the world is split up into closed blocs or exclusive spheres of influence, rivalry, antagonism and conflict are inevitable.

15. In developing a framework for cooperation among Asian countries, we therefore need to take an open and inclusive approach. This is why for the upcoming East Asian Summit (EAS), ASEAN is in favour of a broader participation, including India, Australia and New Zealand and our three Dialogue Partners in Northeast Asia – China, Japan and South Korea. The EAS together with existing mechanisms such as the ASEAN-based forums and APEC are important components of an open regional architecture which gives all the major powers a stake in Asia.

16. America is not a participant of the EAS but it is a very important and constructive player in the region. America plays major economic and security roles in Asia, which no other country can do for many years to come. It is therefore in Asia’s interest for the US to remain engaged in the region. China understands this and has said that it welcomes America’s active and constructive role in the region. Ultimately, Asia stands to gain most from maximising its web of linkages with the rest of the world.

Growing A Stake In the International System

17. As China becomes more and more interlinked with the rest of the world, it will have a growing stake in sustaining the international system. This will mean adopting international rules and norms, helping to tackle global problems together with other countries, and playing an active role in global bodies.

18. In security, a continental power like China will naturally seek to provide for its own defence and to protect its vital interests. Even US China scholars have acknowledged this, and disagreed with the view that China does not need to improve its military capabilities. However, China can help to reassure others of its constructive role in preserving regional peace and stability, for example by participating in security dialogues and confidence building initiatives.

19. In public health, the SARS outbreak showed clearly how events within one country can have a major impact worldwide. Today, we face an even bigger threat – the risk of a global influenza pandemic. We do not know when or where this mutation will take place. But taking a lesson from SARS, we must work together now to reduce the chances of this happening, and at the same time, develop effective responses in case an outbreak occurs.

20. China’s growing demand for energy and natural resources is another global issue. China’s intensified search for natural resources worldwide has led to perceptions that it is seeking to hoard and monopolise supplies. While it is natural and legitimate for a growing China to need more natural resources, this demand should be met through a market framework. In addition, resource and energy conservation will help China reduce the impact of its rapid growth on other economies, and improve the efficiency of its own economy.

21. Aside from energy concerns, China’s rapid growth will impact the environment, both within China and worldwide. More carbon dioxide emissions will intensify the greenhouse effect. This is a global problem. It cannot be solved by China alone, but neither can it be solved without China doing its part. That China has acknowledged these concerns in its 11^th Five-Year Plan shows that it is prepared to do its part.

Singapore-China Partnership

22. Like other Asian countries, Singapore too will benefit from China’s growth. We are a small country in a world of larger states, and therefore more dependent on the external environment than others. We have benefited from a stable regional order where the major powers with stakes in the region have established a balance because they have a vested interest in its prosperity. The best way to enhance this favourable environment is to have a successful China taking an active interest in the region, alongside India which is opening up, and Japan and the US which continue to play significant roles. This is why we want China to succeed, and are happy to participate in its transformation in whatever small way we can.

23. We wish China well in its continuing peaceful development. We believe that whatever the difficulties, they can be overcome, and that China will emerge peacefully. This is a historic transformation which will bring immense benefits to China and the world.

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