Singapore Government
Press Release, Media Relations Division, Ministry of Information,
Communications and the Arts, MITA Building, 140 Hill Street, 2nd Storey,
Singapore 179369
Tel: 6837-9666
MM Lee Kuan Yew’s
Interview with Bloomberg News - (Part II)
SINGAPORE: MM Lee Comments on Global
and Regional Developments.
Bloomberg TV (English), Voices
1300 hours, 16.9.05
________________
Bernard Lo: “He was the founding father of the Republic
of Singapore, one of the longest
serving leaders in Asia.
Thirty-one years he was in office from 1959-1990. Now as Minister Mentor, he is still making
his views heard. Lee Kuan Yew talks
today to my friend and colleague Haslinda Amin about
Sino-US relations and his future vision for the Lion City:”
Mr
Lee: "I think concern isn’t the
right word. It's the biggest development
for Asia and the world since the end of the last
century. It started at the end of the
last century. For more than150 years, China
was dormant. 1949 when Mao Zedong did
proclaim the People's Republic of China,
he said China
has stood up. (Remarks in Mandarin: Chung Kwa Chan Chi
Lai le (?)). Politically yes, but
economically they took the wrong path.
They followed the Soviet Union, model of the Soviet
Union and they stagnated for over 40 years, no
not quite 40 years but by 1978 Deng Xiaoping decided it wasn’t working,
so he started this open-door policy. The
breathtaking thing about China
is its size and the potential of its people.
You just look at what Taiwan
has done, Hongkong has done and you multiply that by a factor of 50 and you
know it's a gigantic size. It will take
some time and I think they're on track.
They're concentrating on education, they are getting their infrastructure
right, they have got a meritocratic
system in their education. You get
promoted to primary school, from primary to secondary to university, all on
merit. And the universities are
expanding rapidly and becoming very up to date, latest journals, computers,
everything complete. Growing at seven to
nine per cent per year in 20 to 30 years, their economy will be as big as the United
States.
Not per capita because United States
is 270 million, they're 1,300 million.
So they are about one-fifth per capita.
But total size, they keep on growing.
So it is a very heavyweight player and if you look at the, just looking
at Asean, China
is displacing the United States
as the biggest market for the exports of Asean, most countries. And even for the Japanese, their biggest
trading partner for Japan
today is not the United States
but China."
Q:
"But despite what you're saying, you maintain that the US
will remain the dynamic economy in the next 20 to 30 years. Why is that?"
Mr
Lee: "Oh yes, absolutely. Well because it's got a superior system and
it's got enormous advantages. First it
is technology. It's at the leading edge
of so many sectors -- IT, life sciences, you name it, the US
is the lead player, space. Second, the
economic system is a very flexible, is somewhat ruthless in the competitiveness
within the US. So if you see airlines crash, new airlines
come up, if you look at Fortune 500, 20 years ago, the list today is
different. So there is a relentless
process of change and attrition. Old industries
are pushed out, new competitive ones emerge, take over. China
will take a long time to move towards that kind of a system and I'm not sure
they are altogether settled in their minds that that is the system they want to
emulate. They're still
wanting to hold on to their major industries. I don't know, it’s
part of their basic socialist thinking that all the major industries should be
state-controlled, steel, electricity, all sorts of power and so on. So they do not have that same competitive cost-cutting
edge. I don't think they're
wanting that because the price for this heightened competition is that
losers suffer very badly. I mean one day
you are AT &T, the next day it's opened up, AT &T shrinks. One day you are IBM and you are the master of
the whole IT industry, in a few years, Microsoft and their desktop ate up their
business. China
wants to do a bit of that, but I do not believe they have quite resolved in
their minds that that is a system that they are wanting to emulate
completely."
Q:
"Given the potential in China, a lot of countries want to do
business with China, but you've said before that if there is a conflict of
interest with China, relations of the G-to-G,
Government-to-Government level suffers, relations even with the private
sector will come to a standstill. What
is the best approach to relations with China?"
Mr
Lee: "Well you have to take your
chances, you place your bets. They may
over time improve in the sense that having acceded to WTO rules, they may have
to comply, they can't just freeze you up and cut you
out because your government has offended them in policy in the United Nations
or whatever. But it is a problem when
dealing with China
or I would say even the Soviet Union. It's not as bad as North
Korea, but they consider politics as in
total command of everything that they do.
So if you cross the red line with them on politics, then they will put
the pressure on you, diplomatically, in economics, in every field. So you have to be prepared for that."
Q:
"Do you think the approach that the US
has taken towards China
is the right approach? I mean given the
recent CNOOC, where US
policymakers stopped CNOOC from acquiring UNOCAL."
Mr
Lee: "No, they are two different
things. CNOOC was an acquisition they wanted
to make at a very sensitive time. I
personally think the US
lost something by freezing the Chinese out by very unfriendly noises from the
Congress and the media because the Chinese could not have seized US
oil resources. They wanted CNOOC because
CNOOC had oil fields exploration rights and so on in Asia. So that was what they were after. If you want the Chinese to join the system
and they’re prepared to pay the market price, I think you are setting a bad
example by saying, “No, you can’t. I consider that a critical factor, oil, or
you’re out.” So the next time you want
to acquire something of theirs, they’ll say, “Oh, that’s sensitive to me. Out” – which I think will confine the areas
for a free flow and a free exchange.”
Q:
"Minister Mentor, we have to leave it there for the moment. We’re going for a short break. You’ve been watching Bloomberg Voices. Stay with us. “
(Commercial
break).
Q:
"Welcome back. You're
watching Bloomberg Voices and my guest today is Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew. Minister Mentor, before the break we were
talking about China. You have always been a moderator for
China-Taiwan relations. What is your
view on where relations are heading? Can
China continue
to take a hard stand on Taiwan
given that Taiwan
is the biggest investor in China?"
Mr
Lee: "It has got nothing to do with
Chinese stand on Taiwan
being affected one way or the other by Taiwan
investing in China. The Chinese want the Taiwanese to invest. The
more they invest, the more Taiwan
will benefit from China's
growth and the more the two countries are interlinked and that is what they
want. I don’t see …… "
Q:
"But China
continues to take a hard stand towards Taiwan…?"
Mr
Lee: "Ya,
against they are going independent. But
they are quite happy to leave things as they are for 10, 20, maybe more
years. No independence, stay put,
status quo, we carry on."
Q:
"Is there a resolution to the China-Taiwan tension?"
Mr
Lee: "I think it has improved since
Lien Chan and James Soong visited China,
particularly Lien Chan as head of the KMT.
His visit was an important symbolic occasion. It showed a certain closure to the Chinese
Communist Party versus the KMT conflict since 1945. For Hu Jintao to receive Lien Chan in the
Great Hall of the People and giving him, according him the treatment of an
equal was very significant. He did not
want to humiliate the loser in the civil war.
He was gracious, he treated him as an equal, but at the same time that
Lien Chan as Chairman of the KMT, was in Beijing in the Great Hall of the
People, signified a certain acceptance that China is ruled by the Chinese
Communist Party. I think it was an
important symbolic acceptance and what he said, that He was a Chinese, he does
not want independence. He also does not
want the one-country, two systems and he says until that is resolved, why
should both sides not work to each other's advantage economically and in every
other way? And Hu Jintao's
response was, we agree, let's work together and put this issue of reunification
under whatever system later on aside for the time being."
Q:
"Minister Mentor what is your view on how stable the region
is? We have the Philippines
having to deal with MILF, we have Indonesia
also having to deal with Aceh, how stable is Southeast Asia?"
Mr
Lee: "I think Southeast
Asia is very stable except for the terrorist problem. Economically all the countries are in good
shape. They have learned from this,
learned and restructured their economies and their currency systems, exchange
rate since 1997. And now with China
and India
growing, both China
7 to 9 per cent, India
6 to 8 per cent per year, they are two enormous boosters, on top of the US,
Japan and Europe,
lifting up the whole region. So,
economically it is in good shape. Yes, there could be slight ups and downs
supposing the oil price stays unacceptably high for too long. The US
consumer buys less after Katrina and less optimistic, you might have a slight
downturn, but the long-term trend is upwards.
Will the terrorists knock us off course? I don't think so. Can the terrorists scare people from time to
time? Yes. Can they kill people from
time to time? Yes. They killed 200 plus in Bali,
they killed 50 something plus in Jakarta Marriot Hotel. They killed a few hundreds in Manila
each time. And in the south they are
killing a few people, 50, 60 by simultaneous bombs in
southern Thailand
but they can’t knock the economy off course.
Q:
“You are the Founding Father of Modern Singapore. Singapore
has just celebrated its 40th anniversary. Is it the metropolis you set out to
create?"
Mr
Lee: "You know in 1965, I could not
and nobody could have imagined that developments in the world -- the aircraft,
satellite, Internet, satellite TV, the enormous growth of interaction between
countries, peoples. But what I could
envisage then was to make Singapore
a part of that modern world. But once
you are no longer based on Malaysia as the hinterland and had to be based on
the world as our hinterland, we had to be competitive, we had to change the way
we thought of ourselves, we had to become internationalists, cosmopolitan,
welcome business from everywhere which has meant Japan,
America, Europe
and now increasingly China
and India. So, I would say every chance, every tide,
every wind, every surf that came our way, we tried to
ride on it and that's how we got here."
Q:
"If I could get you to gaze into the crystal ball, where do you see
Singapore 40
years on?"
Mr
Lee: "I told you I couldn’t see Singapore
this way as it is 40 years ago. If you
can tell me what kind of a world it will be in 40 years, then I can say well, in that case Singapore
will be like this because what you see today in Singapore is a microcosm of
what the world has become. We have
placed ourselves in this network of cities that are linked together. Now, there’ll be new cities that will join
this network. Shanghai for one,
definitely. India
proposes Bombay as its New
York. Delhi
will be its Washington. So, I can see a change. For instance, if you take dress styles or
food styles, quick fast foods, just as sushi entered the market. I think in 20 years, there will be Chinese
and Indian takeaways, all nicely packed, hygienic, franchised. Today, already it's done in a not totally
franchised like McDonalds but in England
you can get take-away curries. But
somebody is going to work out a system, he'll franchise it, I don't know Taj Mahal or something Mahal and you can have the whole panoply of curries,
chapattis, whatever it is, all quick foods. So, it is going to be a very different
world.
Q:
"Have you regretted any decision you have made?"
Mr
Lee: "Well, that's a parlour game. There
are so many decisions that I wish I’d made in a better way. But you know you can argue this backwards and
forwards. I have done so many postmortems. But at the end of the day with the knowledge
I had at that time, I made the best judgement possible and you will never have
total information and even if you have, there would be intervening
circumstances which will throw off the prediction out of gear. So, I'll say learn from your errors and move
on, don’t repeat them."
Bernard: “That was Lee Kuan Yew, the founding father
of modern Singapore
talking to my friend and colleague, Haslinda Amin.”
(This programme
was presented by Bernard Lo and Haslinda Amin ).
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/Monitoring