KEYNOTE ADDRESS BY MR MATTHIAS YAO CHIH, MINISTER OF STATE FOR DEFENCE,AT THE SINGAPORE STUDENT SYMPOSIUM ON WEDNESDAY, 23 JUL 97 AT 0915 HOURS AT RELC AUDITORIUM

SINGAPORE - OUR HOME FOR THE FUTURE

Introduction

Thank you very much for inviting me to address you this morning. The organisers of this forum have asked me to speak on Singapore - our home for the future. Looking at it from today's viewpoint, I would say that Singapore, our home for the future, looks good. Our sovereignty will remain secure. The economy will be competitive and dynamic. The urban landscape will be exciting. The natural environment will be preserved. The arts will flourish.And our society will become closer knit. I will explain why I hold these views.

Forecasts

Before that, let me show you some examples of what others think would be the future of Singapore. This is what Hamish McRae wrote in his book "The World in 2020", published in 1994:

"Singapore's achievements are so remarkable that it is hard not to continue to be optimistic. As an entrepot centre it could be damaged by instability in the region, for anything which damages trade will damage Singapore. By the same token the region's general improved economic performance will benefit entrepot centres. Thus its skills in ommunications and financial services will benefit from the growth in local securities markets. Its airport and indeed its port facilities will continue to benefit from the growth in regional trade. ...

" The most likely portrait of Singapore for 2020 would show it still to be a prosperous little island, but one that people are a little less impressed by. . . . . . . "

Next is a pessimistic view from Paul Krugman in an article "The Myth of Asia's Miracle" in Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 1994:

"Singapore's growth has been based largely on one-time changes in behaviour that cannot be repeated. Over the past generation the percentage of people employed has almost doubled; it cannot double again. A half-educated work force has been replaced by one in which the bulk of workers has high school diplomas; it is unlikely that a generation from now most Singaporeans will have PhDs.

... the growth of Lee Kuan Yew's Singapore is an economic twin of the growth of Stalin's Soviet Union - growth achieved purely through mobilisation of resources."

Who is right? Who is wrong? Time will tell. And you will have a direct impact on what the outcome will be - because in the next 40 years during your active working life, you will be making the decisions in the Government, in the professions and in business that will influence which way we go. And the private decisions you make as private citizens to support or oppose policies on the economy, education, communications, transport, health care and other national issues will determine which view will come true.

Here is the third item I found. This is a cartoon from Asiaweek, 13 June 97. Asiaweek carries a weekly cartoon called "illustrated prophecies" that attempts to predict, in a light-hearted manner, what might happen to various Asian countries, cities or politicians in the future. They might show a chaotic, ironic or optimistic situation arising from current trends or events. For Singapore in 1999, Asiaweek predicts that "Nothing much happened".

I find this cartoon most intriguing. If you look at it negatively, you may be offended by it. It seems to poke fun at Singapore being a serious, sterile and absolutely boring place. And the faces in the cartoon are made to look quite unhappy.

But I see the cartoon positively. The landscape of Orchard Rd looks familiar, clean and orderly. The people are well-dressed, going to work or to do some shopping. It is a scene of peace and prosperity.Asiaweek's comment that they do not expect anything much to happen in 1999 is a compliment to us: that we will continue to achieve economic growth, avert social unrest, and enjoy a peaceful life which many others elsewhere would envy.

While Asiaweek predicts such a scenario, it is by no means a certainty. It will come true only if the factors and circumstances we have today continue to be present in the future, and if we continue to seize the opportunities that give us an advantage and overcome the problems that can bring down our economy and society.

Problems and outlook

Our home for the future will exist in the world of the future. The world is constantly changing. Every change, big or small, can have an impact on us. What are the important changes that will affect our future? The most obvious is that there will be even more rapid advances in technology and medicine. The first silicon chip was made only 40 years ago.

Today, 20 million people are connected by Internet. In the next 40 years, new technology will allow us to do many more things which existed previously only in the realm of science fiction and fantasy. Already, the existing technology allows us to call up a vast array of information, connect to anyone or any organisation in the world, and get what we want done - instantly, simultaneously and from any location we happen to be in.

We can do much more with less resources and effort. We have far greater access to knowledge, and far greater power to satisfy our needs. Our future home will have all these and more for our citizens.

In medicine, there will be more breakthroughs. New cures for diseases will be found, and ways to repair injured parts of the body will be improved. The result is that fewer people will die young and many people will live longer. So you will live in a more crowded world. In the last 40 years, the world population has doubled, from about 3 billion people to 6 billion currently. The UN Bureau of Census estimates that it will grow to 9 billion people by 2050, which is within your lifetime. To live longer, and to live more comfortably, that is the basic quest of mankind. Every advancement mankind makes, in science, medicine, economics, architecture, and many other fields, can ultimately be explained by our motivation to live a longer life and to control our surroundings to make that life physically and spiritually more comfortable.

So while there are rapid changes taking place, something does not change - and that is our instinct for self preservation. That instinct has a negative side to it. One of the strategies of survival is to ensure that one's own community is able to dominate the other rival communities that compete with it. The sense of community and the need to dominate is extremely powerful. Political and economic forces, however strong, however long they have existed, cannot keep apart a community that wants to be together. So despite the great difficulties that were known beforehand, the Berlin Wall was brought down and the German people were re-united. And when Hong Kong returned to China on 1 Jul 97, one financial executive in Hong Kong expressed this feeling: "For today, communism doesn't come into this. For today, this is just about being happy to be Chinese".

The danger arises when the different communities resort to fighting each other to achieve dominance. Examples in history include the Peloponesian Wars, the Crusades, the Napoleonic War, and the two World Wars. Today, we see hostilities in Bosnia, Rwanda, and Northern Ireland. Before the ink is dry on one peace treaty, another war breaks out elsewhere.

Security

Will the world in our future be more peaceful or more turbulent? I think the realistic view has to be that the cycle of war and peace will repeat itself over and over again. We must be prepared for any eventuality.

For the foreseeable future, Singapore will continue enjoy peace within a peaceful region. ASEAN will add two more members, Laos and Myanmar, to the grouping. The admission of Cambodia has been delayed, but I hope that peace will return soon, and that one day Cambodia too will join ASEAN.

The aspiration of ASEAN is to work together to improve the livelihoods of the populations of the member countries. It emphasises friendship, free trade, and consensus in problem-solving. As we commemorate ASEAN's 30th anniversary this year, we can look forward to an era of co-operation and stability for South-east Asia.

The rest of the Asia-Pacific is also peaceful. While there are potential hot-spots like the Spratly Islands, Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula, the parties have indicated a desire to pursue peaceful negotiations to settle the issues. This approach gives hope.

Nevertheless, we must also be prepared should things go wrong. Our security is based on the twin policies of diplomacy and deterrence. Diplomacy comes first. We want to make friends, and maintain goodwill with the countries of the region and the world. We will build strong bilateral relations, and play an active part in multi-lateral forums, to promote co-operation and peaceful approaches to solving problem.

However, should diplomacy fail, we must have the ability to deter any act of aggression. We have a strong SAF to deter others from attacking us. We have a Total Defence programme that involves every citizen in the defence of Singapore. Our sovereignty and national interests will continue to be protected as long as the SAF remains strong and every Singaporean plays his part in Total Defence.

I have spoken for some time to talk about security because it is the most important factor that affects our development. If there is no stability, there is no progress. Just look at Cambodia today, and you will see why. When there is instability, we cannot do business. There will be no investments, no development. Everyone just fears for his life.

Economy

Fortunately our environment is peaceful. This allows our economy to grow. But that does not mean that we can simply sit back, relax, and the jobs will continue to be created and trade continues to flow. Far from it. The competition gets keener all the time. The whole of the Asia-Pacific region and an increasing number of the South American countries are well on the way to achieving greater economic strength. Their populations are becoming better educated, but their labour costs are still much lower than ours. They have a lot more land, so their factory buildings and offices are cheaper.

They also have large internal consumer markets. Those which adopt pro-growth, pro-business policies will attract investments from the developed countries. Some of that can be at our expense.

However, their prosperity can also be good for us. Prosperity in the region will create jobs for Singaporeans who will venture abroad. There will be investment opportunities for our entrepreneurs. There will be larger consumer markets with greater purchasing power for our traders to sell to.

In the future we face, we will continue to enjoy progress and prosperity if we seize the opportunities that come along, but we court disaster if we slacken. We cannot survive by selling goods and services to each other within Singapore. We must be plugged into the world market, and produce for the rest of the world what it needs and will pay for.

But the world market moves fast. New technology and communications make old methods obsolete overnight. Currency values rise and fall swiftly, bringing benefit and difficulties to economies on a vast scale.

We cannot run away from this world and this reality. We are a part of it, and we have to make Singapore work or our prosperity will slip away. At every moment therefore, we must keep a lookout. We must be good at analysing the trends, spotting the signals, overcoming the problems and working out sound strategies so that our prospects remain bright.

One outcome to expect is that when you start your working life, you are quite likely to be asked to work abroad, or to travel abroad very often. As our economy grows and matures, we need to do business and work away from Singapore. Our domestic market is too small, and there are vast opportunities abroad. If Singapore were a larger country, with several cities within the boundary, we would have been transferred from city to city as a routine anyway. Your scope in our home for the future is far larger than that of the generations before you.

Landscape

How will our future home look like? The Government is committed to making Singapore the best home. There are plans to beautify and modernise our city. These will be carried out over the next 15 to 20 years. Public housing will be transformed along the Punggol 21 concept, where housing estates are not just to provide shelter for your family but to also promote gracious living among the neighbourhood. As our population grows, our flats will have to be smaller and go higher, and few will be able to have landed property. But the environment will be more pleasant, the housing designs more charming, and the quality more superior.

We will enjoy a world class transport system which will integrate the bus services, Mass Rapid Transit System and Light Rail Transit System. SingaporeOne will link homes, businesses and public institutions through a broadband multimedia network. A new downtown area will come up at Marina Bay. New industrial and technology parks will be developed to enhance productivity and business synergy. The working environment will be dynamic and outward-looking.

To balance the urban landscape, there will be lots of green spaces. The nature reserve will be kept in its natural state for the enjoyment of the people as well as for research of equatorial rainforests. Public parks will built to give easy access to greenery. Where possible, bird sanctuaries will be created for local and migratory birds. Singapore will continue to be a Garden City.

The fine arts will grow. Our artists, writers, performers and producers will be given the opportunity and encouragement to achieve their potentials. Professionals and amateurs alike can look forward to greater support from their audiences as the population becomes more aware of their works and appreciate them more. The Esplanade will have world class premises, so that world class performances can be put up for the people to enjoy. The cultural scene will be vibrant.

Our society will be more cohesive. If our concept of community bonding succeeds, our people will be more responsible and hold more compassion towards each other. The Community Development Councils were set up to achieve this. Through the CDCs, the people will be encouraged to look after one another. The community will attend to the needs of the needy and care for their own living environment. The spirit of volunteerism and social responsibility will spread.

If we succeed in doing all these in Singapore, and to succeed we need every Singaporean to help make it work, our home for the future will be a city of excellence, our best home for the 21st century.

Destructive forces

What can go wrong? I have spoken about security. Stability in our region is critical.Without peace, there will be no progress.

The other way Singapore can get into difficulties is because of a fragmentation of our society, caused by centrifugal forces. Centrifugal forces act on our society in several ways.

One is ethnic. Since the 1960s, we have enjoyed racial harmony. All our ethnic communities have worked hard to promote mutual understanding and co-operation. We must continue to uphold our multi-racial, multi-cultural and multi-religious principles. If Singapore is ever allowed to break up, like Yugoslavia did, it will be destroyed. It cannot be put back in the same way again.

For those who embark on regionalisation, and for those who study abroad, there will be attraction for them to remain abroad. That is alright. As long as they consider Singapore to be their home, our family of Singaporeans will grow bigger, and that will be good for all of us. But if they stop being Singaporeans, and stop caring about what goes on in Singapore, we will suffer a drain on talent and ties. We will be a poorer country.

Fragmentation may also arise if Singaporeans grow to be more selfish, if they care only for themselves and offer no help to the less fortunate in our society nor to ensuring our long term development. It will lead to friction, resentment and abandonment of our national interests and objectives.

In our home for the future, we must create centripetal forces that will pull us together, so that we can work towards a common, lasting benefit for the whole of our society. We are making a start, with National Education, Core Values and Total Defence. We must evolve other ways that will bind us firmly together.

Preparing for the future

How should we prepare for the future? I suggest this list for you to consider:

1 Pay attention to the trends and developments in the region. Understand the difficulties we face and support the efforts we are taking to overcome them.

2 Make learning a lifelong quest. Keep in touch with advances in information technology and exploit information as a strategic resource to stay ahead of the competition.

3 Look outward and look far into the job horizon. There will be greater opportunities than ever before; but to find them, you must look for them. Be daring, be determined, be decisive.

4 Help to improve Singapore to make it a stronger base to build a future on.

What is a home?

I have described what I think Singapore would be in the future. But why should Singapore be so important to you that you should make Singapore your home and not elsewhere? I have no answer for you. You have to decide that for yourself.

For me, home is not just concrete walls and floors and ceilings. Home is made up of people who care about us and whom we care about. Home is what we help to build, and hope to pass on to our children. Home is where we make a deposit of our emotional attachment, and a commitment to protect it from harm.

And home can mean a lot more. You won't know what it is until it happens to you. For the 400 Singaporeans who were evacuated from Cambodia recently, it was a stressful experience. They were worried. Some were fearful. Their feeling on touching down in Singapore is hard to describe. But try to imagine it anyway. Imagine the sense of joy, relief, gratitude, well-being and renewed confidence.

The place that gives you this special combination of emotions whenever you return to it is where you should call home.

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